Prediction of High-frequency Data: Application to Exchange Rates Time Series

نویسندگان

  • Milan Marček
  • Dušan Marček
چکیده

This paper considers the use of ANN methodology for parameters estimation of the autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) processes. The paper provides heuristic approach of ARCH processes modelling. This approach is often employed to estimate the values of financial variables as rates of return, exchange rates, means and variances of inflation, stock market returns and price indexes and also to predict their variances.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

A Nonlinear Model of Economic Data Related to the German Automobile Industry

Prediction of economic variables is a basic component not only for economic models, but also for many business decisions. But it is difficult to produce accurate predictions in times of economic crises, which cause nonlinear effects in the data. Such evidence appeared in the German automobile industry as a consequence of the financial crisis in 2008/09, which influenced exchange rates and a...

متن کامل

Ensemble Kernel Learning Model for Prediction of Time Series Based on the Support Vector Regression and Meta Heuristic Search

In this paper, a method for predicting time series is presented. Time series prediction is a process which predicted future system values based on information obtained from past and present data points. Time series prediction models are widely used in various fields of engineering, economics, etc. The main purpose of using different models for time series prediction is to make the forecast with...

متن کامل

Risk prediction based on a time series case study: Tazareh coal mine

In this work, the time series modeling was used to predict the Tazareh coal mine risks. For this purpose, initially, a monthly analysis of the risk constituents including frequency index and incidence severity index was performed. Next, a monthly time series diagram related to each one of these indices was for a nine year period of time from 2005 to 2013. After extrusion of the trend, seasonali...

متن کامل

Investigating the Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rates on Iran's GDP (AMIDAS Model)

Abstract This study goes beyond the the prevailing use of averaged data to investigate the hidden evidence of asymmetry due to the effect of monthly exchange rate fluctuations on Iran's quarterly GDP during the period 1380:1-1397-4. For this purpose, the regression model of Mixed Data with different asymmetric frequency (MIDAS model) is use, which allows time series variables with different fre...

متن کامل

Tidal prediction using time series analysis of Buoy observations

Although tidal observations which are extracted from coastal tide gages, have higher accuracy due to their higher sampling rate, installing these types of gages can impose some spatial limitation since we cannot use every part of sea to install them. To solve this limitation, we can employ satellite altimetry observations. However, satellite altimetry observations have lower sampling rate. Acco...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2009